Betting on the percentage of ball possession in football: what it is

IIn football statistics, the percentage of possession as a team’s possession of the ball is one of the key stats. It is therefore no wonder that the betting shops are taking bets, offering players a prediction on this figure.

This result depends on many factors (general team stats, coaching style, etc.), but if you’re putting a possession bet on a total match result, you should bear in mind that holding onto the ball is not always the winning strategy.

Betting definition

The ball possession percentage is a statistic calculated by the official statistics partner in a football championship and shown in the match report. The conclusions of the statistical partner and used by the bookmakers.

Bets on possession are accepted on total and on a handicap. Total bets are accepted in two variants: TB (more than a certain time) and TM (less than a certain time). That is, the player indicates the length of time the selected team will have possession of the ball during the game. With a TB bet the actual result shall be longer than the time set by the player, with a TM bet the actual result shall be shorter.

For handicap bet the player shall give the result which shall be deducted after the game from the percentage of time the team was in possession of the ball. If after deducting the handicap the result of the team is still greater than the opponent’s result, the bet is settled.

Relatively few bettors take bets on ball possession, as a lot of factors will only come into play if they are matched. Besides, the chance factor is very important, especially when it comes to a match between equally strong teams.

Who likes to bet on the percentage of ball possession

This kind of bet is made mainly by bettors who like to describe very detailed match predictions. After all, the strategy when betting on a team’s possession of the ball involves a detailed analysis of the team’s style of play, as well as the coach’s work style.

There are several teams in world football that rely on possession-based tactics year in and year out. These include: “Ajax, Juventus, Barcelona and Bayern Munich.

As for the coaches’ strategies, even some internationally renowned specialists like Jose Mourinho and Diego Simeone do not consider possession percentage to be a determining factor in a team’s success. Therefore, when making bets, coaching strategies must also be taken into account.

Force majeure in football

In possession betting, changing weather conditions like rain or snowfall can seriously confuse the cards and lead to totally unexpected results. Teams then prefer to bet on long passes and throws that are very difficult to predict.

Also the skill level of the teams’ main midfielders should be taken into consideration when making such bets, as the ball is most often possessed by players of that profile.

The height of the players is also important. Teams with a large number of taller players prefer to play in the top flight and this has a negative effect on the team’s possession statistics. Teams with a predominantly middle-aged squad, on the other hand, often prefer grassroots football, which often has a positive effect on this statistic.